2014年ACCA考试（p3商务分析）考前总结32

　　以下是高顿网校小编为学员整理的：p3商务分析，供学员参考。
 

　　Project risk can be said to depend on three variables:

　　1. How well defined is the project? A well-defined project will set out in detail exactly what the project is to accomplish (the deliverables), when each stage should be completed, and how each stage will be appraised (quality). These qualities can be summed up in the phrase ‘project scope’. Additionally, it is important to set a cost budget in advance. We will see later that there can be tensions between cost, time, quality and scope, but if these have not been defined in the first place, the project will run into difficulties quickly as each member of the project team is likely to be pursuing different goals. A poorly defined project will be short on detail but long on grand ambition. For example, stating that the new IT system will improve inventory management is almost useless. Is the firm moving to just-in-time? Is it going to develop sophisticated demand-forecasting algorithms? Is the warehouse to be automated? Will labour and machine use be part of the system? In addition, if the project is not well defined, even if most participants happen to have a similar vision initially, the project will be susceptible to drift. This means that as the project progresses, ideas change and the project deliverables change. To some extent, project drift is inevitable because as the project is worked on, more information is discovered and it would be foolish not to take note and alter the project where necessary. However, altering projects part way through is usually expensive in terms of time and money if work has to be redone or abandoned. What must be avoided is ongoing, ‘nice-to-have’ project drift, in which new features are added little by little without proper *uation of costs and benefits. By defining the project in detail at the start, the firm will have thought carefully about deliverables and the need for subsequent amendments should be minimised.

　　2. The size of the project. It is pretty obvious that there will be more risk associated with large projects. More stakeholders will be involved, possibly including customers and suppliers. There will be more coordination problems and the financial investment will be greater. Project failure, will cause great disruption and many people will be affected. By contrast, small projects will be easier to control and if they go wrong, damage is likely to be confined to a smaller number of stakeholders.

　　3. The technical sophistication of the project. A project which depends on well understood solutions is much less likely to go wrong than a project which is attempting to use cutting edge, experimental technology.

　　So, if you are put in charge of a large, poorly defined, sophisticated project, you might like to look round for another job, as if the project fails to deliver (and it probably will) you could be the number one scapegoat.

　　Of course, there can be a good business case for embarking on large sophisticated projects, as these can allow companies to differentiate their products and services. If standard, hesitant, safe solutions are always used then more ordinary performance will result. It might be part of a business’s strategy to adopt radical solutions to gain competitive advantage. However, there can never be any excuse for a project being ill defined at the start.
 

　　Risks must be managed and the following approach can be used:

　　1. Define the risks. What could go wrong?

　　2. Assess the risks. This will be a combination of estimating the financial effect if the risk event occurs, and the probability of the risk occurring. Some risks would have large financial consequences but could be very unlikely to happen. Others might have trivial financial consequences.

　　3. Prioritise the risks. What are the really serious events that need to be addressed first?

　　4. Deal with the risks. Generally, there are four approaches:

　　· Tolerate the risk, either because the event is unlikely to happen and/or the consequences will be immaterial.

　　· Treat the risk, or do something to ameliorate it. For example, if the consequences of missing a deadline are serious, have additional resources available that can be used to speed up the process if necessary.

　　· Transfer the risk. Insurance is a form of risk transfer, as is sub-contracting. So if you are worried about an IT project missing important deliverables, consider sub-contracting part of it and build in penalty clauses.

　　· Terminate the risk. In other words, the event would be so serious that you do not want to risk it occurring at all. For example, if there were a security breach during a project that requires sensitive data to be held, this could be devastating to a company, so the company might decide not to hold that data, despite it possibly yielding good marketing information.
 

　　高顿网校小编寄语：努力了，就无怨无悔。有道是：天道筹勤！相信自己，你是最棒的！

 　　　　　　

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