2014 ACCA考试（P4 高级财务管理）考前辅导9

　　以下是高顿网校小编为ACCA学员整理的：P4高级财务管理，供大家参考。
 

　　With regard to the Euro the most likely outcome at the current time is that the Euro continues in its present form with its existing members. However, this view could easily be overtaken by events even between the time I write this and the date of publication. For this to happen emergency funds will need to be provided when and where required and, if necessary, a managed default may occur in one or more countries. The popularity of this option is that by holding the Euro together the risk of contagion is minimised. However, the contagion feared if Greece is allowed to exit the Euro seems to be in danger of occurring anyway as witnessed by the sudden rise that occurred in Italian bond yields in late 2011. Furthermore countries at risk will be encouraged to promise much with regard to potential fiscal measures that may be imposed on them safe in the knowledge that no effective sanction will be taken against them when they fail to comply. This option seems to be a ˉletˇs muddle through and see what happens approachˇ but does not necessarily seem sustainable in the long run. Furthermore, it is not necessarily the best approach for the countries involved as they will remain locked into a currency which fails to suit their needs.

　　In order to reduce the risk of further and ongoing crises, a closer fiscal union between Eurozone members is envisaged. This will involve more stringent fiscal rules and greater penalties for countries not abiding by the rules.

　　As Eurozone members have individually lost control of their interest rates, exchange rates and capital controls they need to adjust exports and/or consumption as otherwise the trade imbalances which threaten to undermine the Euro will continue. For example, Germany needs to promote domestic consumption while Greece needs to reduce consumption and promote exports. It will be a difficult task for Greece to achieve this whilst they remain in the Euro. Historically, a country in this position would carry out a currency d*uation to promote exports and growth.

　　The European Stability Mechanisation (ESM) is a permanent scheme which is due to take over from both the EFSF and EFSM from July 2012. It will act as a financial firewall and through guarantees, limit the potential for default by any one country and hence the risk of contagion.
 

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