To answer this question, we need to establish the residual values using the following equations:
Earnings = prior year book value × ROE
Equity charge = prior year book value × required ROE
Residual income = earnings − equity charge
Here is a table containing the relevant values.
Year |
Earnings (ROE = 13.60%) |
Book Value |
Equity Charge (Required ROE = 8.70%) |
Residual Income |
PV of Residual Income |
0 |
|
$12.40 |
|
|
|
1 |
$1.69 |
$14.09 |
$1.08 |
$0.61 |
$0.56 |
2 |
$1.92 |
$16.00 |
$1.23 |
$0.69 |
$0.58 |
3 |
$2.18 |
$18.18 |
$1.39 |
$0.78 |
$0.61 |
4 |
$2.47 |
$20.65 |
$1.58 |
$0.89 |
$0.64 |
5 |
$2.81 |
$23.46 |
$1.80 |
$1.01 |
$0.67 |
Company value = $12.40 + the sum of the residual incomes
Assuming residual value drops to zero after year five, the company is valued at $15.46 per share.
Now, we modify the model to reflect the persistence factor of 35%. The only value that persistence factor effects is the terminal value. Instead of discounting the Year 5 residual income by 1 + required ROE, we discount it by 1 + required ROE − persistence factor. The new values are as follows:
|
Book Value |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Value |
$12.40 |
$0.56 |
$0.58 |
$0.61 |
$1.62 |
Year 4 CF = Residual income in year 4 + PV Continuing residual income = 0.89 + 1.37 = 2.26
PV of continuing residual income (T=4) = RI(year 5)/1+r-w = 1.01/(1+0.087-0.35) = 1.37
PV(T=0) of 2.26(T=4)=1.62
For a total value of $15.78 per share, or $0.32 higher than the original value.