To get the 2nd quarter forecast, we use the one period forecast for the 1st quarter of 2004, which is 0.155 + 0.240(0.240) + 0.168(0.260) = 0.256. The 4th lag for the 2nd quarter is 0.22. Thus the forecast for the 2nd quarter is 0.155 + 0.240(0.256) + 0.168(0.220) = 0.253 |
