To determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued, we need to compare the expected return (or holding period return) and the required return (from Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM).
Step 1: Calculate Expected Return (Holding period return):
The formula for the (one-year) holding period return is:
HPR = (D1 + S1 – S0) / S0, where D = dividend and S = stock price.
Here, HPR = (0 + 55 – 45) / 45 = 22.2%
Step 2: Calculate Required Return:
The formula for the required return is from the CAPM:
RR = Rf + (ERM – Rf) × Beta
RR = 4.25% + (12.5 – 4.25%) × 2.31 = 23.3%.
Step 3: Determine over/under valuation:
The required return is greater than the expected return, so the security is overvalued.
The amount = 23.3% − 22.2% = 1.1%.