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$85,000 is the sales estimate with the highest probability level. The problem asks for the expected value of Philip's budgeted cost of goods sold.
Cost of goods sold averages 80% of sales. In order to determine the expected value of cost of goods sold, we first need to calculate the expected value for sales. Cost of goods sold will be equal to 80% of the sales value. The expected sales can be calculated by multiplying each of the possible outcomes by the probability that it will occur and adding the products together. When we do this, we get $84,000 as the expected sales [($60,000 × .25) + ($85,000 × .4) + ($100,000 × .35)]. The expected value of cost of goods sold is 80% of this, or $67,200.
$68,000 is the cost of goods sold calculated using the sales estimate with the highest probability level.
$84,000 is the expected value for sales in 2013. The problem asks for the expected value of Philip's budgeted cost of goods sold.