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AnaKonda Investment Managers (AIM) manages private client portfolios for high‐net‐worth individuals investing in stocks, bonds, and currencies. During their weekly meeting, the management team at AIM (Adam Bergman, Chief Investment Officer; Elena Medeva, Equity Strategist; and Venkat Rajan, Currency Trader) discusses a wide range of items pertaining to investment research and management, such as measures of economic activity, country growth rates, and economic policies.First, on examining the recent data on the measures of economic activity, the team members make the following comments: Rajan: Cross‐country comparisons of gross domestic product (GDP) should be based on the current market exchange rates because the exchange rate movements correctly reflect the growth in the country’s economy. Medeva: For equity investing, we need to predict the change in stock market value, and it requires three inputs: expected changes in corporate earnings, GDP, and the price‐earnings multiple. Of these inputs, the growth rate of GDP must dominate in the long run. Bergman: From the standpoint of our fixed‐income holdings, we should be very concerned if the expected GDP growth rate is less than the potential growth. In that case, there will be an upward pressure on interest rates and a decline in bond prices.Bergman then suggests that for making investment decisions, it is important to assess the steady state rate of growth of a country using the neoclassical growth model and presents the data (Exhibit 1) that is needed for computations. Medeva says, “I’m glad to see the data in Exhibit 1. However, I would be more interested in measuring the growth rate in potential GDP using the labor productivity growth accounting equation. It will help me to consider increasing equity exposure to the country with the highest growth rate in potential GDP.”Rajan responds, “I too like examining a country’s steady state rate of growth, but I prefer to go deeper by examining the impact of various factors on a country’s economy from the standpoint of the neoclassical model. Based on my readings and analysis of the macro‐economic data, I came up with the following conclusions for the three countries where we hold significant positions. Country X: It is experiencing a higher level of capital accumulation and a rapid increase in business investment. Taken together, these two developments indicate a higher growth rate of output and potential GDP. Country Y: Its government is investing in advanced technologies and initiating measures to achieve growth in total factor productivity. Even though the country is experiencing diminishing marginal returns to apital, I believe it will be able to sustain growth in per capita GDP. Country Z: This country’s data show increasing trends in the rate of savings, growth rate of the labor force, and the depreciation rate, which, I believe, would result in a permanent improvement in the growth rate of output per worker.”Next, Bergman recommends that AIM should increase holdings in the country that offers the highest real interest rate according to the international Fisher effect and presents the data (Exhibit2) for conducting the analysis.  Medeva states, “Before concluding our meeting, we must evaluate the direction of monetary policies in the three countries, X, Y, and Z. As an example, let’s use the data in Exhibit 3 for Country Z and apply the Taylor rule to determine the appropriate policy rate.”  |
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