项目的预期年度税后现金流计算如下
预期年度税后现金流=(年度现金流)(概率%)= ($45,000)(0.1) + ($50,000)(0.2) + ($55,000)(0.3) + ($60,000)(0.2) + ($65,000)(0.1) + ($70,000)(0.1) = $4,500 + $10,000 + $16,500 + $12,000 + $6,500 + $7,000= $56,500
设定在14%折现率下，净现值 (NPV)等于零的年度税后现金流的方程如下：
(现金流)(3.433 PV年金i=14, n=5) – $200,000 = 0
3.433(现金流) = $200,000
现金流= $58,258，大约是$60,000
年现金流大于$58,258的概率 = 40% = (20% @ $60,000 + 10% @ $65,000 + 10% @ $70,000) |
