$400 million
The current surplus is $100 million, resulting in a SAR of $500 million. The asset base is expected to generate $100 million this year ($2,000 million × 0.05). The 5% SAR of $500 when the surplus is $100 million indicates that the underfunding of the plan at year end when the surplus will have increased $100 million to $200 million will be $400 (= 100 − 500) or more, 5% of the time
