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David Wellington, CFA, has estimated the following log-linear trend model: LN(xt) = b0 + b1t + εt. Using six years of quarterly observations, 2001:I to 2006:IV, Wellington gets the following estimated equation: LN(xt) = 1.4 + 0.02t. The first out-of-sample forecast of xt for 2007:I is closest to: A. 1.88. B. 4.14. C. 6.69. |