Answer (D) is correct . The expected value is calculated by weighting each sales estimate by the probability of its occurrence. Consequently, the expected value of sales is $84,000 [$60,000 ¡Á .25) + ($85,000 ¡Á .40) + ($100,000 ¡Á .35)]. Cost of goods sold is therefore $67,200 ($84,000 ¡Á .80). Answer (A) is incorrect because The amount of $85,000 is the sales estimate with the highest probability. Answer (B) is incorrect because The amount of $84,000 is the expected value of sales. Answer (C) is incorrect because The amount of $68,000 is 80% of the sales estimate with the highest probability.
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