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This answer is almost correct, but does not include subtracting advertising. Advertising is a relevant expense, because it would not be incurred if the frozen desserts were not produced and marketed.
The correct answer is one of the answer choices given.
This is the contribution margin for the frozen desserts, calculated using the expected value of sales volume (the weighted average of the possible volumes), multiplied by the contribution margin per unit ($1.80-$1.15). However, the operating profit directly traceable to the sale of frozen desserts must also include fixed costs that would not be incurred if the frozen desserts were not produced and sold. Because they are incurred only if the frozen desserts are produced and marketed, those are relevant costs. Those fixed costs include the production tooling for the production of the frozen desserts and the advertising expense for the frozen desserts.
Using the probabilistic approach, the expected sales volume is 305,000 units, and the unit contribution margin is $0.65 ($1.80-$1.15). Thus, the total expected contribution margin is 305,000 × $0.65, or $198,250. Production tooling ($48,000) and advertising ($30,000) are also traceable to the frozen desserts. Even though they are fixed costs, they are relevant costs because they would not be incurred if the frozen desserts were not produced and marketed. Therefore, the total of these fixed costs, $78,000, needs to be deducted from the contribution margin. Operating profit traceable to the frozen desserts is $120,250 ($198,250-$78,000).