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NPV of sales revenue = 20,000 × $5.00 × 3.605 = $360,500
NPV of variable costs = 20,000 × $2.30 × 3.605 = $165,830
NPV of contribution = $54,000 × 3.605 = $194,670
(i) Sensitivity to sales volume
For an NPV of zero, contribution has to decrease by $22,570. This represents a reduction in
sales of 22,570/194,670 = 11.6%
(ii) Sensitivity to sales price
As before, for an NPV of zero, contribution has to decrease by $22,570. This represents a
reduction in selling price of 22,570/360,500 = 6.3%
(iii) Sensitivity to variable cost
As before, for an NPV of zero, contribution has to decrease by $22,570. This represents an
increase in variable costs of 22,570/165,830 = 13.6%
The basic approach of sensitivity analysis is to calculate the project's NPV under alternative
assumptions to determine how sensitive it is to changing conditions. An indication is thus
provided of those variables to which the NPV is most sensitive (critical variables) and the
extent to which those variables may change before the investment results in a negative NPV.
Sensitivity analysis therefore provides an indication of why a project might fail. Management
should review critical variables to assess whether or not there is a strong possibility of events
occurring which will lead to a negative NPV. Management should also pay particular attention
to controlling those variables to which the NPV is particularly sensitive, once the decision has
been taken to accept the investment.