Choice "A" is correct. A manager that believes their actions will have unerring impact on the market place is suffering from an illusion of control.
Choice "c" is incorrect. Overconfidence is purely a belief that judgments are correct.
Choice "b" is incorrect. Excessive optimism anticipates more favorable than unfavorable results.
Choice "d" is incorrect. Confirmation bias seeks data that supports a position without regard to evidence that contradicts the position or supports an opposing point of view.