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Pat Binder, CFA, is examining the effect of an inverted yield curve on the stock market. She determines that in the past century, 75% of the times the yield curve has inverted, a bear market in stocks began within the next 12 months. Binder believes the probability of an inverted yield curve in the next year is 20%. Binder's estimate of the probability that there will be an inverted yield curve in the next year followed by a bear market is closest to: A. 50%. B. 38%. C. 15%. |