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1 |
Forecasts are made on the assumption that everything continues as in the past. |
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2 |
If the model being used is inappropriate, for example, if an additive model is used when the trend is changing sharply, forecasts will not be very reliable. |
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3 |
Provided a multiplicative model is used, the fact that the trend is increasing need not have any adverse effect on the reliability of forecasts. |
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4 |
Provided the seasonal variation remains the same in the future as in the past, it will not make forecasts unreliable. |
