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Mike McLaughlin is an economist who makes quarterly forecasts for the state of the economy and interest rates. Last quarter, the economy did not grow as fast as McLaughlin predicted. McLaughlin explains that his forecast was inaccurate by stating “This change in the economy was due to a real estate market that slowed faster than many forecasters, including myself, expected. If it weren’t for the real estate market, my projection for GDP would have been accurate.” Which of the following is the best interpretation of McLaughlin’s statement, from a behavioral finance view? McLaughlin is using: A. an “if-only” defense for his inaccurate forecasts and his recognition of it will sharpen his abilities. B. a self attribution defense for his inaccurate forecasts and this will prevent him from accurately evaluating his own abilities. C. hindsight bias as a defense for his inaccurate forecasts and this will prevent him from accurately evaluating his own abilities. |