The board of Pisces Games, a computer games company, decided not to continue to manufacture a game based on a new television programme after the first series of the programme achieved low audience ratings. The board believed that the television series would never be successful and the revenue from the sales of the game would not cover the costs of manufacture and of the licence.

However the second series of the programme was a big success. A rival company, Taurus Technology, successfully bid for the licence that Pisces Games had given up, and the game has become Taurus' biggest selling product.

The error that Pisces' board made in deciding not to bid for the licence can best be described as: