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4,000 pretzels is an average with equal weight given to each outcome and therefore is not calculated using the expected value approach.
The correct answer is given. See the correct answer for a complete explanation.
To solve the problem we should multiply each possible sales volume by its corresponding probability to find the weighted average, which is the expected value. It is calculated as follows: (2,000 × 0.10) + (3,000 × 0.15) + (4,000 × 0.20) + (5,000 × 0.35) + (6,000 × 0.20) = 4,400.
5,000 pretzels is calculated using the deterministic approach, using the most likely outcome or the sales volume corresponding with the highest probability level of 35%. This is not the expected value approach.